Well, she's got grit, that's for sure.

This whole time we've been thinking that the narrative is experience vs. non experience. I criticized the Biden pick over it, as I wasn't not sure how it fit in. Damn near everyone criticized the Palin pick for the same reasons. I guess for me, there was a sense that things weren't what they seemed, and we'd have to wait for her to talk to be sure. Typically, narratives aren't set until the convention. This has just been such a long and painful campaign cycle, it felt easy to jump the gun.

I thought there might be experience and woman issues as major story lines. What I missed though, is something that I think Steve Schmidt deserves a whole lot of credit for. The narrative is neither of these things, at least, primarily.

The plot has turned into small town America vs big cities.

I had all but forgotten the "they cling to guns and religion" comment. That was truly a turning point for the Obama/Hillary showdown if you put it on a time line. I think it was Peggy Noonan who said there are ~250 cities with 100k or more, and 100k or more cities with 10k or less.

To put it in geek terms, small towns are the long tail in American politics.

So what does this mean for the race? No idea. All I know is McCain stands a much better chance today than he would have with a tradional pick. There are about 60 days left until the election though. Lot's of things can happen, and some of the dirt being thrown at Gov. Palin may very well stick. We've yet to see any real polling numbers on any of this but should start to get a better idea in a week or two.

National polls don't matter much, instead watch polling in Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, Penn, and Virginia. Penn is a long shot for republicans, it'll be more about trying to force Democrats to spend money and time defending it. Indiana and Minnesota are other long shots for both parties. To give you an idea of how close this election is, if everyone voted Today, Obama would win by less than a state. If Colorado, which has traditionally been republican and is now on the fence, again votes republican, McCain wins. This isn't the landslide a lot of folks like to pretend it'll be.

I should say, since I have a lot of friends who are over the top Obama supporters, that I'm fascinated by the guy. I keep his 2004 DNC speech on my ipod, after he gave it I immediately read his first book and then when his second book came out, I read it that week straight through. I love his story, I love his charisma, I love his feelings towards community. I just simply disagree with his view on the role of government, and I'd be a hack if I didn't acknowledge that.

Most folks take that to mean that I was going to vote McCain anyway. Perhaps, but truth be told if a pollster called and asked, I likely would have said Bob Barr. I was thinking it may very well be a protest vote kind of year. What I needed to see from McCain was vintage McCain, not robotic scripted awkward McCain. Picking a vp out of left right field that infuriates so many people? Now, that's more like it. McCain is supposed to be unpredictable. That's part of his charm. And truth be told -- I'm just as annoyed with what the GOP has done lately as everybody else. I think most fiscal conservative types are.

We'll see how all this plays out. I'm just thrilled that no matter what happens, a history changing ticket wins. We've come a long way.

Here come the smears, and here comes the push back. So much for "politics of hope."

I've listened to the media suggest that the McCain camp was going to dump Gov. Palin off the ticket because it "wasn't popular" since Saturday. Last night, even PBS was in on the game.

Are you serious?

McCain has raised $8 million with Gov. Palin in less than 72 hours. The republican hq around here has been lit up with requests for signs and volunteering. If you saw any of the RNC last night, you would have noticed that Gov. Palin generated larger applause lines than McCain did.

So McCain should dump her because Keith Olbermann says so? The dude got himself banned from ESPN's campus. I'm pretty sure he's a lunatic.

Since Friday, we've heard that:

• The baby with down syndrome isn't hers (a lie, and a shameless one. I won't even link to it. It's on dailykos.com)
• We've heard all about her pregnant daughter (who, according to people in the town, has been engaged for some time and openly pregnant, this was no secret. It turned into a news release solely because of the dailykos garbage). Further, watching non-conservatives try to explain that conservatives have a hard time with this is painful. It's not just about the pregnancy - It's about taking personal responsiblity for that pregnancy. Thats a hundred times more relevant to conservatives and at the center of what the party stands for as a whole -- personal responsibility. Also, I wasn't aware that she was running for office. Obama's reaction to this and the down syndrome baby rumor is 100% on the money.
  
• We've heard that she was a registered member of a secession movement in Alaska because she gave a video address to their convention (a lie, and the McCain campaign produced party registrations for her entire life, all of them Republican)
• We've heard that her Husband had a DUI two decades ago (when Obama was still 'experimenting' with cocain, according to his book. Oh, and, her husband isn't running for office.)
• We've seen Democrats violate federal law and release her DOB, home address and social security number on the internet.
  
• We've heard that the McCain camp didn't properly vet her and only talked with her once (both lies, according to people we know on the McCain research team and according to the McCain camp itself)
• The 'revelation' that Gov. Palin once received a citation for fishing without a license (ZOMG! NOES!)
• She tried to fire her brother in law after he made death threats against their family. We'll know more October 31st when the investigation is done.
• We've listened to self proclaimed feminists talk about her choice to run for the White House as being bad parenting - as if anyone ever charged JFK, Bill Clinton, John Edwards or any other male politician seeking the White House with being a bad father because of it. (update: Or heck, Obama himself.)
  

Excuse me, but... What. The. Fuck.

Obama has ties to the weathermen and Rezko, McCain's a member of the Keating Five, and Biden and his lobbyist son received boat loads of cash to help pass a bill benefiting MBNA.

And we're going to throw mud on fishing without a license, being a "bad mother," and firing her wife beating brother in law? Sorry, but I learned a long time ago that 'hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.' And frankly, none of this shit should matter. Over night, our entire country has turned into TMZ. In the midst of the "Who's yo' baby's daddy?" MSNBC and the like have been reporting on, we hit a major, major milestone in Iraq. I bet you can't tell me what it was, though.

We haven't even seen Gov. Palin talk on issues yet. The "politics of hope" campaign has turned ugly and it's turned ugly fast. Sen. Obama's on TV talking about how his campaign offers him more experience than her being a mayor -- conveniently ignoring the fact that she's a Governor of a state with 10x the employees, 10x the budget and 10x the power of his presidential bid. Oh, and more constituents than Joe Biden. Not to mention that her state controls the majority of our domestic energy -- a center piece subject of both campaigns.

The DNC and idiots like those on DailyKos have quickly led their party into the 'trap' that I felt the McCain campaign had laid. If Gov. Palin turns out to have teeth (which we'll find out more on tonight), McCain's gamble will have paid off big.

If it doesn't pay off for McCain, if Gov. Palin turns out to not be all that savvy, I think I've at least learned a whole lot about "politics of hope." It turns out its the same old tired tactics as before, just with a leftist lean.

Great.

When Obama was rumored to be picking Gov Kaine, we heard certain cable news networks talk about him being an outsider and enhancing the reform characteristics of Obama's ticket.

McCain picks Gov Palin, those same news networks talk about how its a desperation pick.

Both Palin and Kaine have similar amounts of governing experience. One just happens to be a female on a GOP ticket (omg its the wrong party!)

During the rally yesterday, MSNBC put in their ticker -- "How many houses does this ad to the McCain campaign?". Yeah, that's relevant and unbiased. Someone take the keyboard for the ticker away from Keith Olbermann, and stat.

Hillary's camp has long accused MSNBC of favoritism towards Obama. Hell, Mathews doesn't care if Obama gives him chills up and down his leg, he wants the world to know! You'll start hearing the republicans lobbing the same criticisms towards MSNBC. It'll be interesting to see if the Clinton's back off their statements now that he's "their guy."

Lot's of emotion on the Palin VP pick by McCain, if you've been following my twitter stream you know I think it was a fantastic pick. I'll do my best to explain it in a non-partisan way. (I do, however, hold a conservative view of the role of gov't.. it doesn't really factor into this though). I'm also talking strictly strategy -- I'm positive Sarah Palin has a lot of credentials that justify her amazing, though fairly short, political career. I'm just not familiar enough with them to build a case on it. So, forgive me for strictly talking about the gender/outsider aspects to all this.

McCain needed to go bold. A traditional pick would have left a boring ticket vs. an exciting ticket and played right into the narrative the democrats have created -- change from the status quo. There were only a couple people who had picked Palin, a few more that suggested KB Hutchinson. Past that, the thinking really was that it'd be Pawlenty or Romney or Huckabee or some sort of "obvious" choice. A 'safe' choice, but certainly not exciting.

There are obvious questions/concerns with the Sarah Palin pick. Experience is the obvious one -- if McCain kicks the bucket, is she ready to take over? And will women feel this was a contrived pick and that they're being pandered to?

The experience argument is an interesting one. It may invalidate McCain's attacks on Obama, or at the same time, it may highlight the fact that the inexperienced candidate on the Democrat ticket is the one on the top, not the bottom. In this way, it could be a trap for the DNC. We'll have to wait and see.

The bigger trap though, is the female vote within a democrat party desperately trying to move past the primary. The first aspect to this is regarding the contrived/pandering points. I hear ya, but let's be real. If John Kerry can pander to southerner's by picking an inexperienced John Edwards, and Obama can pander to the working class by picking Biden, why can't someone pander to women? Politics is about appealing to the widest amount of supporters possible, and frankly, women are a demographic that have largely been ignored. Shouldn't they be allowed to be pandered to, when every other group is? Heck, George Bush was sold as a guy's guy constantly.

The second aspect to this is the more deadly trap the DNC could fall into. When you really dig down into the HRC hold outs, there are a lot of lingering feelings of sexism within the party. A inexperienced male was able to beat the "proven" female candidate, but only because the party itself threw out two of the biggest states "won" by the female candidate.

If Democrats attack Palin for inexperience, after justifying Obama's inexperience -- whats the difference between the two candidates? Once again, it's gender. One's a male, one's a female. The sexism argument doesn't just go away, it moves to the forefront.

A lot of my democrat friends have pointed out that HRC supporters won't support a pro-life female. That might be true on the whole, but it's not about winning over the majority of HRC supporters. It's about winning over Hillary supporters in states like Pennsylvania, where Obama was beaten handedly.

Females from working class, catholic, families.

In other words, females from working class, pro-life, families.

The stage has been set. The DNC is busy running off a script prewritten for any republican opponent -- bush, bush, bush, bush, no bush iii, bush. Fairly quickly, McCain is separating himself from the way the GOP brand is currently perceived.

It's a risky pick, but given the nature of the race, I think it's truly brilliant. I'll be busy trying to read up on her background to see if she can hold her own politically outside of the strategy aspects. Hopefully I'll like what I see.

Biden as the VP pick has sparked some interesting conversations surrounding campaign narratives and how the "story" factors in to the presidential race. Just like business, having a quality story is central to the 'sale'.

McCain's is obvious. He was a POW that turned down early release because it was based on who his father was and not how long he had been a prisoner. It's been echoed so many times in so many different ways that there's probably no one left in the world who doesn't know it. Mix that with "Straight Talk," and you've got a solid pitch.

Obama's is one "that can only happen in America." A son of a white lady from Kansas and a black man from Kenya. He's a Washington outsider who can bring hope and change to a broken system. His judgment is strong and that's more important than experience. He voted no on Iraq when everyone else was quick to pull the trigger. He's young, vibrant and articulate. With an unpopular war and a even less popular outgoing republican president, it's an appealing story.

There are flaws to each one though. With McCain, he's not very conservative. I know, you're probably screaming "McSame!" and "it's four more years of bush!", and that's fine -- just remember that the people who started those chants are the same folks who asked him to be the Democrat Vice President to John Kerry only four years ago. The fact that he was considered, has gone against the party on numerous issues, has his name all over McCain-Feingold -- these things don't sit well with the republican base.

With Obama, "Washington outsider" can quickly descend to lack of experience for anyone not a governor. Washington is a tricky place and the ability to navigate it is a skill acquired over time (partly the reason the term limit discussion was so quickly abandoned). His 'I'm change/hope over the existing structure' strikes people as egotistical. Number one reason for Hillary holdouts not supporting Obama? Ego. What series of ad's have been so successful for McCain lately? The ones that paint Obama as arrogant. Working class whites, the demo Obama has struggled the most with, are largely turned off by that sort of thing. Race is, I'm sure, an issue (and sadly), but let's not discredit his negatives.

The point of all this is that the VP selection strikes me as critical to solidifying the narratives and addressing negatives. McCain hasn't announced his pick yet, but of the three short list mentions - Ridge, Romney & Lieberman- I think Ridge and Lieberman fit his 'story' the best. The problem is that neither speak to his negatives (boils down to them being pro choice, ultimately). Romney, despite not being trusted by many social conservatives, represents the best chance and has a strong economic resume (he'd be the only executive in the entire race!)

Regarding the possible creation of a cross party ticket with Lieberman (admittedly, a very long shot) -- can you imagine watching the DNC keep a straight face while attacking the person who broke Kerry's heart by saying no to VP running with the 2000 Democrat VP candidate, and then try to say that they represent 'change from the usual politics' when they have to start blasting them with attack ads? Some how, I really am drawn to that scenario, which pretty much means it won't happen ;)

Obama announced his pick would be Joe Biden. Biden was born in Scranton, Penn and should help with working class whites (and fans of The Office... ahem). What's interesting to me is what will it do to the narrative? Joe Biden is supposedly the person who pushed for McCain to be the Dem VP pick last cycle, he voted for the Iraq war and he's a Washington establishment (30+ years in the senate).

It was Obama who said it's not experience that matters, it's judgment. He used that line repeatedly to beat Hillary in the Dem debates. He has now picked the Dem foreign policy guy who is a quintessential Washington insider to be on his ticket. It's an attempt to address the lack of experience critique, but by labeling Biden as the expert, doesn't that nullify many of the arguments he used against Hillary? If the person he thinks is the expert on foreign policy voted for the war, then.... who had the better judgment given what was known at the time? Keep in mind that Condi-Bush have been busy negotiating an Iraq withdrawal. The foreign policy aspects to all this may end up focusing more on Russia than Iraq.

It'll also be interesting to watch the 'change' mantra after picking someone so seasoned. Biden hasn't been without controversy. In fact, there's quite a bit of it. Obama may have just given the Republicans the ammunition the need to run the 2000/2004 playbook successfully. Biden's also going to have to be the attack dog against McCain -- someone who, even recently, he said would make a great president. Surely won't help silence those silly 'flip flop' chants. Biden also has a notoriously large ego -- I'm sure we'll all see the "I guarantee that my IQ is higher than yours" c-span clip at some point. Expect more ego ads in the near future.

His pro's shouldn't be ignored though. Biden brings a *ton* of experience to the table, and for a lot of people, that's a really important thing (myself included). He's catholic and popular in Penn, demo's that may very well become in play this cycle. He's also a straight talk kind of guy which really addresses the appeal that McCain has to a lot of independents. Who knows. Of the options, maybe he really was the best. I really thought it'd be Kaine until he started talking so much, then I thought Evan Bayh.

Obviously, the "right" VP pick is the one that helps you to win. It's August and far to early, and I mean.. what the heck do I know. We'll all see how Biden performs. The question of narrative should answer itself at the convention soon enough. I'm curious to watch.

For McCain, I think the VP pick is a whole lot tougher. He may not have the "coattails" to withstand a poor choice. Unless it's leaked, we'll have to wait until Friday after the DNC to know who it's going to be. My guess is Ridge.

Enough about Obama. He changes his mind too much. McCain? McCain actually died in South Carolina back in 2000. That's just Bob Dole in an old man costume.

I'm voting for T. Boone Pickens, who as Gavin pointed out, not only looks Texan, but also has the best Texan name ever. Additionally, he seems to have a somewhat coherent energy policy. What more reason do you need? He's not shy about admitting he'll make a boat load of cash by it, but who cares? Someones going to make some coin and it might as well be the guy from the Simpson's.